And finally there is the problem of false alarms. False positives (cases in which a prediction is made but no earthquake occurs – crying wolf) would quickly result in a loss of confidence in the system.
What are the problems with predicting earthquakes?
When the stored energy beneath the crust is suddenly released as an earthquake, the crusts response to the changing stress beneath it is not directly proportional. This makes it hard to predict the strength of the earthquake and the behaviour of the crust.
What is an earthquake what causes it to happen can earthquakes be predicted?
Earthquakes are the result of the release of stress/strain that builds up as Earths tectonic plates move and grind against each other. Although some regions around the world are definitely more prone to earthquakes than others, it is not possible to accurately predict exactly where or when earthquakes will occur.
What factors influence earthquake prediction?
Many factors influence the strength of earthquake shaking at a site including the earthquakes magnitude, the sites proximity to the fault, the local geology, and the soil type.
Why is predicting earthquakes so hard?
Its hard enough to monitor these miniscule movements, but the factors that turn shifts into seismic events are far more varied. Different fault lines juxtapose different rocks– some of which are stronger–or weaker– under pressure. Diverse rocks also react differently to friction and high temperatures.